IHS Markit has revised its 2017 guidance for solar PV installation upwards by 14% compared to 2016 levels. The research firm now predicts a global PV deployment of 90 MW this year, primarily as a result of a new trend in the Chinese market.
According to its research, China experienced a much bigger first half of 2017 with installations remaining strong into the third quarter. As a result, IHS expects 45 GW of solar PV installations in China in 2017.
Based on an analysis of official connection statistics, and inverter and module shipments, IHS has estimated that 26 GW of deployments were completed in China the first half of the year. An additional 12 GW will be installed in the third quarter.
The firm expected a decline in PV installations in Q3, but recently released data from the China Electric Council indicated there were nearly 35 GW of PV solar installed by the end of July and that the third quarter decline will be softer than previously anticipated.
China’s solar boom is expected to have an impact on other global markets because it’s a big global supply of solar modules. IHS said the latest deployment forecast suggests the PV module supply chain is at the upper end of what it can produce within a year. It added the final number of module shipments for 2017 is likely to be limited by the supply of polysilicon.
“As a result of the tight supply, projects are being delayed and the short-term outlook in regions such as Japan, India and Latin America has been reduced,” said an IHS Markit research note, adding that it has reduced its forecast for installations outside of China in 2017 by 7 GW.